Latest Available Information

Contributors

This page last updated 2013/05/21 10:14:12 Cape Town Time = South African Standard Time - SAST = UT+2

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Solar activity is low to moderate with background X-ray flux at upper B-class levels. Geomagnetic conditions are at quiet levels. Local HF working frequencies are near monthly average predicted values.

EVENTS: A M-class flare from active region 1753 and two C-class flares from active regions 1748.

OUTLOOK: A new active region on the north-east limb of the Sun has a complex magnetic configuration which may produce M or X-class flares. Signal absorption is expected due to the high background X-ray flux. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled for the next 24 hours.

SYSTEMS AFFECTED: HF Propagation.

Follow us on Twitter by clicking Here

THREE-DAY PREDICTIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN REGION

Current Sunspot Count: 113 (physical sunspots/area count - no relation to EM emission) - See WCI below for effective SSN for HF frequency prediction purposes.

	22-May-13	23-May-13	24-May-13
SSN	69	69	70
Solar Index (WCI for preds)Se*	83	86	83
T-Index**	30 to 105/99	30 to 105/95	30 to 105/106
Solar Activity	low	low	low
Q_fe	4.9	5.8	4.1
A_p	12.0	15.0	8.0
Magnetic Conditions	Unsettled	Unsettled to Active	Quiet to Unsettled
SA HF Comms Conditions	fair	fair	fair
SW Fadeouts	unlikely	unlikely	unlikely
MUFs***	unstable	unstable	unstable

Current T-Index(Hermanus) -	2013/05/21 10:00	SAST is	67.9
Current T-Index(G/Town) -	2013/05/21 10:00	SAST is	70.8
Current T-Index(L/Vale) -	2013/05/21 10:00	SAST is	71.5
Current T-Index(Madimbo)-	2012/07/31 22:00	SAST is	N/A
Current foF2 (Hermanus) -	2013/05/21 08:00	UT is	8.475 MHz
Current foF2 (G/Town) -	2013/05/21 08:00	UT is	8.975 MHz
Current foF2 (L/vale) -	2013/05/21 08:00	UT is	8.975 MHz
Current foF2 (Madimbo) -	2012/07/31 20:00	UT is	N/A MHz
Current Ap-Index -	2013/05/21 10:14	SAST is	8

Green border - OK, Yellow border - beware, Red border - problems for HF comms.

The Font colours for T-Index and FoF2 values have the following meanings:

Black - information less than 3 hours old at time of web page update - can be used for current activities.

Dark Grey - information between 3 and 6 hours old at time of web page update

Light Grey - Information more than 6 hours old and cannot be used for current activities - for info only

The WCI (Wind Compensated Index), or Se Solar index works well with IONCAP/ICEPAC/VOACAP for near real-time Ionospheric evaluations

**T-indices do not stay fixed on one value for days on end. We therefore provide the ranges of values the T-indices are expected to reach during the course of the days indicated, with an average value that can be used for daily frequency predictions.

***Relative to the published monthly average predicted T-indices

If you are new to space weather, please click here for an introduction to the subject.

New long term T-Indices (1938-2015) have been released (Prepared at 02:43 UT on 01 Apr 2013 - Sydney) please get the latest values via a link in the bulletins section, or go straight to the LATEST MONTHLY T-INDICES PAGE to get updates for your ASAPS/WASAPS data bases. A text-only version which can be used to automatically update ASAPS and WASAPS data bases can be downloaded from here.

We have a daily HF frequency predictions page between large centres in Southern Africa, as well as for special links as required. Click here to visit the page.

We have a page containing links to some raw information that could be useful to more advanced users.

Latest Available Ionograms from Hermanus, Grahamstown, Louisvale and Madimbo.