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This page last updated 2013/05/24 16:09:23 Cape Town Time = South African Standard Time - SAST = UT+2

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Solar activity is low to moderate with background X-ray flux at upper B-class levels. There is an increase in proton flux causing polar cap absorption. Local geomagnetic conditions are at unsettled levels. Local HF working frequencies are near monthly average predicted values.

EVENTS: Minor C-class flares.

OUTLOOK: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next 24 hours. Signal absorption is expected due to the high background X-ray flux. An increase in proton flux may disrupt HF communications in the high latitudes until May 26. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours.

SYSTEMS AFFECTED: HF Propagation.

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THREE-DAY PREDICTIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN REGION

Current Sunspot Count: 117 (physical sunspots/area count - no relation to EM emission) - See WCI below for effective SSN for HF frequency prediction purposes.

	25-May-13	26-May-13	27-May-13
SSN	69	70	77
Solar Index (WCI for preds)Se*	83	86	83
T-Index**	30 to 105/92	30 to 105/108	30 to 105/109
Solar Activity	low	low	low
Q_fe	5.8	4.1	3.1
A_p	15.0	8.0	5.0
Magnetic Conditions	Unsettled to Active	Quiet to Unsettled	Quiet
SA HF Comms Conditions	fair	fair	fair
SW Fadeouts	unlikely	unlikely	unlikely
MUFs***	unstable	unstable	unstable

Current T-Index(Hermanus) -	2013/05/24 14:00	UT is	72.9
Current T-Index(G/Town) -	2013/05/24 14:00	UT is	58
Current T-Index(L/Vale) -	2013/05/24 14:00	UT is	26.9
Current T-Index(Madimbo)-	2012/07/31 20:00	UT is	N/A
Current foF2 (Hermanus) -	2013/05/24 14:00	UT is	9.762 MHz
Current foF2 (G/Town) -	2013/05/24 14:00	UT is	8.750 MHz
Current foF2 (L/vale) -	2013/05/24 14:00	UT is	7.825 MHz
Current foF2 (Madimbo) -	2012/07/31 20:00	UT is	N/A MHz
Current Ap-Index -	2013/05/24 14:07	UT is	10

Green border - OK, Yellow border - beware, Red border - problems for HF comms.

The Font colours for T-Index and FoF2 values have the following meanings:

Black - information less than 3 hours old at time of web page update - can be used for current activities.

Dark Grey - information between 3 and 6 hours old at time of web page update

Light Grey - Information more than 6 hours old and cannot be used for current activities - for info only

The WCI (Wind Compensated Index), or Se Solar index works well with IONCAP/ICEPAC/VOACAP for near real-time Ionospheric evaluations

**T-indices do not stay fixed on one value for days on end. We therefore provide the ranges of values the T-indices are expected to reach during the course of the days indicated, with an average value that can be used for daily frequency predictions.

***Relative to the published monthly average predicted T-indices

If you are new to space weather, please click here for an introduction to the subject.

New long term T-Indices (1938-2015) have been released (Prepared at 02:43 UT on 01 Apr 2013 - Sydney) please get the latest values via a link in the bulletins section, or go straight to the LATEST MONTHLY T-INDICES PAGE to get updates for your ASAPS/WASAPS data bases. A text-only version which can be used to automatically update ASAPS and WASAPS data bases can be downloaded from here.

We have a daily HF frequency predictions page between large centres in Southern Africa, as well as for special links as required. Click here to visit the page.

We have a page containing links to some raw information that could be useful to more advanced users.

Latest Available Ionograms from Hermanus, Grahamstown, Louisvale and Madimbo.