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Bulletin 1: Medium Term Outlook

Updated 2012/02/04 10:38:10 South African Standard Time (UT+2)

103 DAY OUTLOOK

DAILY T-INDEX PREDICTIONS (54 days)

 The table in the 103 day outlook page contains expected effective sunspot numbers (SSN) and effective magnetic indices (Q_fe) for the next 103 days. These values are specifically for users of IONCAP and ICEPAC software.

The preceding and following info measured and processed in Cape Town, combined with data obtained from SWPC (NOAA) USA,  IPS Australia as well as from Hermanus (33.4S,19.2E), Grahamstown (33.3S,26.5E), Louisvale (28.5S,21.2E) and Madimbo (22.4S,30.9E) in South Africa and processed for use on this Site:

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST (From SWPC/USAF)

25 January 2011 - 20 February 2012

Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely until Regions 1401 and 1402 depart on 28 January. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remained of the period.

Protons greater than than 10 MeV are expected to remain above event threshold from 25 - 26 January. A return to background levels is expected for the remaining period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels the entire period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on 25 January as effects from the CME from 23 January wane. Quiet levels are expected on 26 January. Quiet to unsettled levels
are expected on 27 January as a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geo-effective. A return to quiet levels is expected until 02 - 03 February, with quiet to unsettled levels expected as
another CH HSS becomes geo-effective. Predominantly quiet levels are expected from 04-08 February. Another CH HSS is expected to become geo-effective with quiet to unsettled levels expected from 09-10 February. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
 

LONGER TERM OUTLOOK (18 January 2012- 17 February 2012)

Degraded HF propagation conditions are still possible during the whole period due to coronal hole activity. The new solar cycle has started with a number of new-cycle active areas observed. Flaring with the associated fading and D-layer absorption have become likely again and should remain for the next 3 to 4 years.

BULLETIN 2: Monthly T-INDICES FOR USE WITH ASAPS SOFTWARE

(Prepared at 03:04:00 UT on 03 Jan 2012 - Sydney)

The table in Bulletin 2 can be used to update the T-Index database in ASAPS and WASAPS software. A text-only version which can be used to automatically update ASAPS and WASAPS data bases can be downloaded from here.

BULLETIN 3: PREDICTED WEEKLY AVERAGES

These are Weekly Corrected Indices (WCI)^© for use with IONCAP/ICEPAC (which can be downloaded free-of-charge from here) - use average SSN, Q_fe.  SSN values in this table have been corrected for solar wind travelling time. Weekly average T-indices - eight weeks ahead - are also provided for users of ASAPS/WASAPS (which is available from here). These are the best values to use in frequency predictions for the week(s) ahead.