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Bulletin 1: Medium Term Outlook (Updated 2010/03/09 06:46:41 South African Standard Time (UT+2)) DAILY T-INDEX PREDICTIONS (54 days) The table in the 103 day outlook page contains expected effective sunspot numbers (SSN) and effective magnetic indices (Qfe) for the next 103 days. These values are specifically for users of IONCAP and ICEPAC software. The preceding and following info measured and processed in Cape Town, combined with data obtained from SEC (NOAA) USA, IPS Australia as well as from Hermanus (33.4S,19.2E), Grahams Town (33.3S,26.5E), Louisvale (28.5S,21.2E) and Madimbo (22.4S,30.9E) in South Africa and processed for use on this Site: Predicted monthly T-Index for March 2010: 7 Predicted monthly T-Index for April 2010: 8 WEEKLY FORECAST (25 Feb 2010 - 03 Mar 2010) Working frequencies for the week: Frequencies will be near to elevated from monthly predicted values during local mornings and near predicted values during local afternoons for most of the week. Propagation conditions for the week: Fair for most of the week, with a slight chance of fading. T index for the week: between -55 and 65, with an average of around -4 (The lower values are mostly day-time values, while the higher values are typically early morning, late afternoon and night-time values) VERY IMPORTANT! Keep watching the latest conditions page - for the next year or so, conditions are going to be very unpredictable. The coronal hole activity typical of the declining phase of the solar cycle will be the cause of instability-inducing gusting in the solar wind. MEDIUM TERM FORECAST (From SWPC/USAF - get the original here) 03 - 29 March 2010 Solar activity is expected to be very low, with isolated periods of low levels, through the period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels through the period. The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet on 03-14 March. Quiet to isolated unsettled levels are expected on 15-16 March, due to a recurrent coronal hole. Activity is expected to return to quiet levels for the rest of the period. LONGER TERM OUTLOOK (30 March 2010 - 30 April 2010) Some degraded HF propagation conditions are still possible during the whole period due to coronal hole activity occurring during this extended minimum phase of the solar cycle. Since the new solar cycle seems to have been starting with a few new-cycle active areas observed, flaring with the associated fading and D-layer absorption is starting to become possible again. BULLETIN 2: Monthly T-INDICES FOR USE WITH ASAPS SOFTWARE (Prepared at 08:25:17 on Tue 02 Mar 2010 Aus (Syd), updated 02 Mar 2010 08:03:08 (SAST) The table in Bulletin 2 can be used to update the T-Index database in ASAPS and WASAPS software. A text-only version which can be used to automatically update ASAPS and WASAPS data bases can be downloaded from here. BULLETIN 3: PREDICTED WEEKLY AVERAGES These are Weekly Corrected Indices (WCI)© for use with IONCAP/ICEPAC (which can be downloaded free-of-charge from here) - use average SSN, Qfe. SSN values in this table have been corrected for solar wind travelling time. Weekly average T-indices - eight weeks ahead - are also provided for users of ASAPS/WASAPS (which is available from here). These are the best values to use in frequency predictions for the week(s) ahead.
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Bulletins
