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Bulletin 1: Medium Term Outlook (Prepared at 03:01:00 UT on 01 September 2010, updated 01 September 2010 07:10 UT) DAILY T-INDEX PREDICTIONS (54 days) The table in the 103 day outlook page contains expected effective sunspot numbers (SSN) and effective magnetic indices (Qfe) for the next 103 days. These values are specifically for users of IONCAP and ICEPAC software. The preceding and following info measured and processed in Cape Town, combined with data obtained from SWPC (NOAA) USA, IPS Australia as well as from Hermanus (33.4S,19.2E), Grahams Town (33.3S,26.5E), Louisvale (28.5S,21.2E) and Madimbo (22.4S,30.9E) in South Africa and processed for use on this Site: Predicted monthly T-Index for August 2010: 20 Predicted monthly T-Index for September 2010: 24 WEEKLY FORECAST (25 Aug 2010 - 31 Aug 2010) Working frequencies for the week: Frequencies should be near monthly predicted values to unstable for most of the period. Propagation conditions for the week: Fair to poor for most of the week. Sporadic-E conditions around local sunset and sunrise times is also more likely during this period. T index for the week: between -45 and 65, with an average of around 0 (The lower values are mostly day-time afternoon and night-time values, while the higher values occur typically during early morning and late afternoon.) VERY IMPORTANT! Keep watching the latest conditions page - for the next year or so, conditions are going to be very unpredictable. The coronal hole activity typical of the declining phase of the solar cycle will be the cause of instability-inducing gusting in the solar wind. MEDIUM TERM FORECAST (From SWPC/USAF - get the original here) 25 August - 20 September 20 Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. Very low to low levels are expected on 31 August through the remainder of the forecast when Regions 1093 and 1099 return to the front of the solar disk. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 25 August to 12 September. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period (13-20 September). Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active condition for 25-26 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Mostly unsettled levels are expected for 27-28 August, becoming quiet conditions on 29 August as the CH HSS subsides. Quiet levels should prevail for the remainder of the forecast period until 20 September when quiet to unsettled conditions are expected due to the recurrent CH HSS.. LONGER TERM OUTLOOK (20 October 2010 - 20 November 2010) The extended minimum seems to have come to an end. Some degraded HF propagation conditions are still possible during the whole period due to coronal hole activity. Since the new solar cycle seems to have started with a few new-cycle active areas observed, flaring with the associated fading and D-layer absorption is starting to become possible again. BULLETIN 2: Monthly T-INDICES FOR USE WITH ASAPS SOFTWARE (Prepared at 03:01:00 UT on 01 September 2010, updated 01 September 2010 07:10 UT) The table in Bulletin 2 can be used to update the T-Index database in ASAPS and WASAPS software. A text-only version which can be used to automatically update ASAPS and WASAPS data bases can be downloaded from here. BULLETIN 3: PREDICTED WEEKLY AVERAGES These are Weekly Corrected Indices (WCI)© for use with IONCAP/ICEPAC (which can be downloaded free-of-charge from here) - use average SSN, Qfe. SSN values in this table have been corrected for solar wind travelling time. Weekly average T-indices - eight weeks ahead - are also provided for users of ASAPS/WASAPS (which is available from here). These are the best values to use in frequency predictions for the week(s) ahead.
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Bulletins
